Should I Sell My House Now or Wait Until 2027? A South Bay Answer

Last updated October 26, 2026

Based on CRMLS closed sales through September 30, 2026, selling now looks well supported in most of the South Bay, and waiting until 2027 does not look like a sure way to earn more. Over the last 12 months, median prices for detached homes rose in Palos Verdes Estates (up 13.5% to $2.95M), Manhattan Beach (up 8.8% to $3.83M) and Rolling Hills Estates (up 7.8% to $2.61M), but were flat to lower in Torrance (down 0.8% to $1.25M), Redondo Beach (down 2.0%) and Hermosa Beach (down 5.4%). Active listings across these cities are down 17.1% from a year ago, and homes in Torrance, Redondo Beach and Manhattan Beach sold at a median of 100% of list price in about 11 days. The California Association of REALTORS 2027 forecast (released October 7, 2026) calls for only 1.4% statewide price growth and expects more inventory to come up for sale. So if you have a reason to move, today's thin competition is a real advantage. If you have no deadline, waiting is a reasonable choice, but the closed sales do not show that it has been clearly rewarded. This is a look back at closed sales, not a forecast, and a city median is not what your home will fetch.

"Should I sell my house now or wait?" is a question a lot of homeowners are asking right now, including on Google. As of October 26, 2026, the first autocomplete suggestion when you start typing it is "should I sell my house now or wait until 2027." Here is how I answer it for South Bay homeowners. The local numbers come from CRMLS, the MLS I work in, through its InfoSparks reports. They count closed single-family detached sales by close date, through September 30, 2026 (the last full month available). I compare the last 12 months (October 2025 to September 2026) with the 12 months before (October 2024 to September 2025). Public sources for state and rate numbers are dated and linked.

What have South Bay homes actually sold for over the past year?

Closed sales tell you what buyers really paid, which is different from asking prices or an online estimate. Across Palos Verdes, the beach cities, Torrance and San Pedro, the picture is mixed, not a single trend.

• Higher: Palos Verdes Estates, median $2.95M (up 13.5%, 139 sales vs 144). Manhattan Beach, $3.83M (up 8.8%, 270 vs 256). Rolling Hills Estates, $2.61M (up 7.8%, 54 vs 47). Rancho Palos Verdes, $1.9M (up 2.7%, 291 vs 295).
• About flat: San Pedro city, $990k (up 0.5%, 234 vs 253). El Segundo, $2.01M (up 1.0%, 74 vs 52). Torrance, $1.25M (down 0.8%, 645 vs 596).
• Lower: Redondo Beach, $1.76M (down 2.0%, 272 vs 272). Hermosa Beach, $2.65M (down 5.4%, 91 vs 91).
• Too small to read much into: Rolling Hills, $4.6M (up 26.4%), but only 19 sales vs 18. A few very large homes can swing that median in either direction. El Segundo and Hermosa Beach are also small samples, so treat their moves as swingy.

Put together, the 10 areas had 2,089 detached sales over the last 12 months vs 2,024 the year before, up 3.2%. Volume is steady, not collapsing.

A median is not your home's value. It mixes every kind of home that sold: different sizes, lots, and conditions. Take Palos Verdes Estates: the median price rose 13.5%, but the median price per square foot was $1,053 vs $1,073, down 1.9%. That tells me part of the jump came from larger or higher-priced homes selling, not from the same house suddenly being worth 13.5% more. Rolling Hills Estates tells a similar story (median up 7.8%, price per square foot down 8.4%). Manhattan Beach is the cleaner case, with the median up 8.8% and price per square foot up 5.9% to $1,500. That is why I price a home from the recent sales most like it, not from a city number.

Is the market gaining or losing momentum?

To see which way things are leaning, I compared the last 3 months (July to September 2026) with the same 3 months a year earlier. Across the 10 areas, closed sales were 600 vs 590, up 1.7%. Flat volume, but the prices underneath split in two:

• Palos Verdes Estates stood out. Median price $2.95M vs about $2.49M a year earlier (up 18.7%), with 49 sales vs 53. Homes took a median of 10 days vs 35, and closed at a median of 100% of list price vs 94.6%. Price per square foot rose 8.8%.
• Manhattan Beach strengthened. Median $3.96M vs $3.51M (up 12.6%), 79 sales vs 66, price per square foot up 10.5%, and a median of 9 days.
• Rolling Hills Estates edged up. Median $2.83M vs $2.6M (up 8.7%), but on just 15 sales vs 13.
• Torrance, Redondo Beach and Rancho Palos Verdes were flat. Medians moved by less than 1% (Torrance down 0.3%, Redondo down 0.7%, Rancho Palos Verdes down 0.3%). San Pedro city was down 2.2% with 58 sales vs 68.
• El Segundo and Hermosa Beach are hard to read. El Segundo's median fell 6.5%, but 31 homes sold vs only 10 a year earlier, so the two periods are not comparable. Hermosa Beach's median rose 2.9%, yet homes took 22 days vs 28 and closed at 97.2% of list, a softer pattern than the other beach cities.

How fast, and how close to list price?

• Median days active in MLS (last 12 months): El Segundo 9, Torrance 11, Redondo Beach 11, Manhattan Beach 11, Hermosa Beach 12, San Pedro 15, Rolling Hills Estates 17, Palos Verdes Estates 19, Rancho Palos Verdes 21, Rolling Hills 45.
• Median percent of last list price received: 100% in Torrance, Redondo Beach, Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach and San Pedro. Rolling Hills Estates 99.0%, Palos Verdes Estates 98.4%, El Segundo 98.4%, Rancho Palos Verdes 98.0%, Rolling Hills 93.1%.

Two cautions. A median of 100% means at least half the homes closed at or above their last list price, not that every home did. And the last list price is the price after any reductions. Measured against the original list price, the medians were a little lower in some places (Palos Verdes Estates 97.4%, Rancho Palos Verdes 96.9%). Days active is InfoSparks' measure and can differ from the days on market shown on a single listing.

How tight is inventory, and what does that mean for sellers?

Very tight. At the end of September 2026 there were 451 active detached listings across these 10 areas, vs 544 a year earlier, down 17.1%. Only Rolling Hills (a tiny market) had more.

The supply side explains it. New listings over the last 12 months were 2,680 vs 2,779 (down 3.6%) while sales were up 3.2%. In September alone, 231 homes came on the market vs 229 a year ago, so there is no wave of new sellers yet. Months of supply (how long today's listings would last at the recent sales pace) were, in September: Redondo Beach 1.6, El Segundo 1.7, Torrance 1.9, Hermosa Beach 2.0, Palos Verdes Estates 2.4, Manhattan Beach 2.5, Rolling Hills Estates 3.1, San Pedro 3.7, Rancho Palos Verdes 4.3 and Rolling Hills 9.6. A common rule of thumb is that under about 4 months favors sellers. Eight of the 10 areas are under that line. Rancho Palos Verdes and Rolling Hills are the exceptions, and buyers there have more room to negotiate.

What low inventory means for you as a seller: fewer competing homes, and buyers with fewer places to go. It helps you sell faster and closer to your list price. It does not guarantee a higher price. Torrance and Redondo Beach have under 2 months of supply, yet their medians were flat to slightly lower. My read is that mortgage rates near 7% limit what buyers can pay, but the data cannot prove that. Also remember that if you are buying your next home locally, you face the same short list of choices.

One more thing to weigh: C.A.R. expects inventory to loosen in 2027. If more homes do come up for sale, the thin competition you have today is something you could lose by waiting. That is a possibility, not a forecast for your street.

Is it better to wait until spring?

Closings do follow a seasonal rhythm. Counting closed detached sales across the 10 areas by quarter:

• October to December 2025: 479 closings (456 a year earlier)
• January to March 2026: 395 (443 a year earlier)
• April to June 2026: 615 (535 a year earlier, up 15%)
• July to September 2026: 600 (590 a year earlier)

Winter is the slow stretch: January 2026 was the lowest month at 99 closings, and January plus February came to 208 vs 272 the year before, down 24%. Spring then made up the ground. So the fall closings were not the weak ones, but the first two months of the year were. Closings also trail listings by a month or more, so a home listed in January or February generally closes in the spring.

What I cannot tell you is that spring pays more. Monthly medians for the same city jump around too much to claim a clean seasonal price lift. In Torrance, my rough read is that spring closings ran above the prior fall and winter in both years, but Redondo Beach, Rancho Palos Verdes and San Pedro show no steady pattern. C.A.R.'s September report noted that "the typical seasonal slowdown will likely apply more downward pressure on home prices for the remainder of the year," though September's 0.2% statewide dip was smaller than the 1.8% August to September drop it calls typical. Waiting for spring also means listing alongside more sellers.

Will mortgage rates and the 2027 forecast change the picture?

Maybe at the edges, but this fall rates have gone the wrong way. Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.32% for the week of October 22, 2026, down from 7.40% the week before but up from 6.19% a year earlier. The Federal Reserve also raised its target range by a quarter point, to 3.75% to 4%, on September 16, 2026, saying "inflation remains elevated." Its next meeting ends on October 28, 2026. The Fed's rate is a short-term rate, not a mortgage rate, so mortgage rates can move before or after its decisions. I will not guess what it does.

The C.A.R. 2027 California Housing Market Forecast, released October 7, 2026, calls for a statewide median price of $894.4k in 2027, up 1.4% from a projected $882.2k in 2026, existing single-family sales up 3.7% to 277,900, and an average 30-year rate of 6.6%. C.A.R. also said it expects the market "to remain subdued through the end of 2026" and housing inventory "should loosen next year." A forecast is a best estimate, not a promise, and it is a statewide number, not your street. Even so, it describes a market that inches forward, not one that jumps. For comparison, the statewide median rose 19.0% in 2021 per the same table.

For scale, here is my own math on a $1M, 30-year fixed loan (principal and interest only): about $6.87k a month at 7.32%, vs about $6.39k at 6.6%. That is roughly $480 a month. Lower rates would help your buyer, but more buyers would likely come with more competing listings. For context, the September 2026 C.A.R. report (released October 19, 2026) had the statewide median single-family price at $899.7k, up 1.7% from a year earlier, and Los Angeles County at $994.7k, up 1.2%, while county sales were down 10.9%.

When does selling now make sense?

• You already know your next move. A new job, a downsize, a move closer to family. Carrying a home you no longer need costs you property tax, insurance, and upkeep every month you wait.
• You have moved out and are renting the home. The capital gains exclusion in IRS Publication 523 requires that you owned and lived in the home as your main home for at least 24 months of the 5 years before the sale. Wait too long after moving out and you can lose the $250k (single) or $500k (married filing jointly) exclusion.
• You are in a thin-inventory city. With under 3 months of supply in places like Redondo Beach, Torrance, Hermosa Beach, El Segundo and Palos Verdes Estates, fewer homes compete with yours today. C.A.R. expects that to ease in 2027.
• Your home is ready. A home that is clean, repaired, and priced to its street is in the best position in any season.

When does waiting make sense?

• You are close to the 2-year mark. If you have owned and lived in the home for just under 2 years, selling a few months later can make the difference between qualifying for the full exclusion and not, per IRS Publication 523.
• You have no deadline and a low tax base. Under Proposition 13, property tax is generally limited to 1% of assessed value plus voter-approved bonds, and the assessed value can rise by no more than 2% a year until the home changes ownership, according to the Board of Equalization. When you buy your next home, it is reassessed to current market value. If you are happy where you are, that is a real reason to stay put.
• You are 55 or older and still deciding where to go. Proposition 19 lets eligible homeowners 55 and older transfer their tax base to a replacement home anywhere in California, up to three times, as long as the replacement is bought within 2 years before or after the sale. If the replacement is worth more than the original home (with the 105% and 110% allowances the BOE describes for buying after the sale), the amount above that limit is added to your tax base. Planning the timing of both sides first can save you real money.
• Your home needs work first. Sometimes a few months of repairs or updates is the best "wait" there is.
• You are in a softer pocket. In Rancho Palos Verdes (4.3 months of supply) and Rolling Hills (9.6), homes took longer to sell and closed further below list. If you do not need to sell, patience can cost you less there than in a 2-month market.

So should I sell now or wait until 2027?

Here is my honest answer from the closed sales through September 30, 2026. Nothing in the local data says you will be paid more for waiting a few months. Competition is thin, homes in nearly every city sell in about 3 weeks or less, and several sell at or above their last list price. That is a good setup for a seller who has a reason to move. At the same time, prices have not been rising everywhere: Palos Verdes Estates and Manhattan Beach have momentum, while Torrance and Redondo Beach have been flat, so waiting for a rising tide has not worked in every city. And C.A.R.'s forecast, a 1.4% statewide gain in 2027 with more inventory, is small next to the monthly cost of carrying a home you no longer need.

Nothing in this article is a forecast, and nothing here is tax or legal advice. Please confirm capital gains and property tax questions with a CPA or tax attorney.

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